Our Investment Clock may enter its ‘Stagflation’ phase during summer, as inflation tracks slightly higher while global growth cools, especially outside the US. Stocks are flat year-to-date after a burst of volatility that marked a global growth peak; a deteriorating economic backdrop and talk of trade wars signal further volatility.
We continued to take profits on our equities position, where the overweight is the lowest since 2012, and reduced our overweight commodities allocation; the proceeds were moved into government bonds and cash, reducing underweights. We are modestly overweight global equities, global high yield bonds and commodities.
You can access up to date views from Trevor on the market and the movements of the Investment Clock on our Latest Investment Clock updates page.
|Absolute Return Strategies (including cash)|
Directions of arrows show overall change from previous tactical change. For individual portfolio changes, please see factsheets