“We have reduced the equity exposure in the GPs and GRIPs to take profits on the additional investment made in January, buying index linked bonds and raising exposure to cash and absolute strategies.
We expect a generally positive trend in equity prices over 2016, but with wide trading ranges, and we are no longer towards the bottom of the range with UK stocks and overseas equities flat year to date in sterling terms.
We expect global growth to pick up in 2016 as the effects of a low energy price and loose monetary policy boost consumer spending in the US and Europe. There are tentative signs that the global industrial cycle may be bottoming out. An upturn in business confidence would surprise a pessimistic consensus and support a continued rally in stocks.
We haven’t made any changes to our regional equity preferences where we remain overweight Europe and Japan, markets that should benefit from looser monetary policy and a resumption of the trend of gradual dollar strength. We are underweight the UK, Asia Pacific and the emerging markets, commodity-sensitive markets that don't tend to do as well in these circumstances.”
You can access up to date views from Trevor on the market and the movements of the Investment Clock on our Latest Investment Clock updates page.
|Absolute Return Strategies
Direction of arrows show change from previous tactical change.
*The decrease in equity allocation within Governed Portfolio 7, has been used to fund a move into the property allocation.